Analyst Forecasts
[January/February 2006]
If there's a lesson to be learned from this year's analyst forecasts, it would be the more things change, the more things stay the same. While some REIT teams' predictions have taken dramatic turns for 2006 (some for the better, some for the worse), others, such as Greg Whyte's team at Morgan Stanley, are sticking to a similar outlook for the new year as they did for 2005. One analyst who sees a rosier picture entering 2006 than he did heading into 2005 is Deutsche Bank's Louis Taylor, whose total returns range is 8 percent to 12 percent, more optimistic than his 2005 prediction of only a -5% to 5% range. Overall, total returns projections among the seven analysts ranged from 0 percent to 12 percent, with analysts choosing the retail sector as the most likely to outperform.
Looking Back—2005 |
Looking Ahead—2006 |
Ralph Block, Essential REIT Publishing
Total Returns Range: 8% to 9%
Top Projected Sector(s): Hotels |
Ralph Block, Phocas Financial
Total Returns Range: 10%
Top Projected Sector(s):
Hotels/lodging and healthcare |
David Fick, Legg Mason
Total Returns Range: 12%
Top Projected Sector(s): Retail, lodging |
Scott Crowe, UBS
Total Returns Range: 5%
Top Projected Sector(s): Retail, lodging |
Ross Nussbaum, Banc of America Securities
Total Returns Range: -5%
Top Projected Sector(s): Regional malls, office, industrial |
David Harris, Lehman Brothers
Total Returns Range: 8% to 10%
Top Projected Sector(s): Retail |
Anthony Paolone, JP Morgan
Total Returns Range: 5%
Top Projected Sector(s): Apartments, office, industrial |
Ross Nussbaum, Banc of America Securities
Total Returns Range: 0%
Top Projected Sector(s): Industrial, regional malls, office |
Ross Smotrich, Bear, Stearns & Co.
Total Returns Range: 12% to 14%
Top Projected Sector(s): Retail, commercial
mortgage/specialty finance |
Ross Smotrich, Bear, Stearns & Co.
Total Returns Range: 6%
Top Projected Sector(s): Retail, industrial, commercial mortgage |
Louis Taylor, Deutsche Bank
Total Returns Range: -5% to 5%
Top Projected Sector(s): Regional mall, industrial |
Louis Taylor, Deutsche Bank
Total Returns Range: 8% to 12%
Top Projected Sector(s): Apartment, malls |
Greg Whyte, Morgan Stanley
Total Returns Range: 0% to 5%
Top Projected Sector(s): Mall, industrial |
Greg Whyte, Morgan Stanley
Total Returns Range: 0% to 5%
Top Projected Sector(s): Regional mall, industrial |
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