For the 22 office REITs that SNL Financial tracks,
12 percent of their signed leases will expire by the end of 2005. After an expected increase in expirations from 2004 to 2005, rollover percentages are forecasted to slowly decrease into 2008, as shown in the accompanying chart.
Paul Reeder, director of real estate at SNL Financial, says that while 2004 will be a sticky year, 2005 has the potential to be a neutral year.
“The thing to note is on average the sector is well placed in terms of rollover risk,” Reeder says. “REITs in general have been very intelligent with managing their rollover risk.”
| Percent of Signed Leases Expiring
|
|
2004Y |
2005Y |
2006Y |
2007Y |
2008Y |
After
5 Years |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. |
6.5% |
6.6% |
15.0% |
6.5% |
6.8% |
58.6% |
| American Financial Realty Trust |
2.7% |
3.1% |
1.2% |
2.2% |
1.2% |
89.7% |
| AmeriVest Properties Inc. |
11.6% |
26.7% |
14.1% |
18.0% |
8.7% |
20.9% |
| Arden Realty Inc. |
10.7% |
17.4% |
16.0% |
12.9% |
13.5% |
29.6% |
| Bedford Property Investors, Inc. |
10.7% |
22.8% |
17.2% |
12.1% |
16.0% |
21.2% |
| Boston Properties, Inc. |
4.1% |
7.2% |
8.4% |
7.8% |
5.5% |
66.9% |
| Brandywine Realty Trust |
9.3% |
18.6% |
12.7% |
12.1% |
12.6% |
34.7% |
| Brookfield Properties Corporation |
1.5% |
6.2% |
3.1% |
2.6% |
5.2% |
81.4% |
| CarrAmerica Realty Corporation |
8.7% |
10.8% |
14.4% |
16.2% |
12.4% |
37.5% |
| Corporate Office Properties Trust |
7.5% |
11.0% |
11.1% |
15.0% |
12.6% |
42.7% |
| CRT Properties, Inc. |
14.0% |
12.3% |
12.8% |
14.8% |
12.4% |
33.6% |
| Duke Realty Corporation |
8.4% |
13.2% |
11.5% |
11.8% |
11.6% |
43.3% |
| Equity Office Properties Trust |
7.3% |
12.8% |
12.6% |
11.3% |
12.0% |
44.1% |
| Glenborough Realty Trust Incorporated |
13.6% |
11.1% |
10.8% |
16.6% |
12.8% |
35.1% |
| Highwoods Properties, Inc. |
11.2% |
15.7% |
15.8% |
10.0% |
14.2% |
33.0% |
| Kilroy Realty Corporation |
3.6% |
10.4% |
11.3% |
13.9% |
16.2% |
44.6% |
| Mack-Cali Realty Corporation |
5.2% |
12.0% |
11.7% |
10.9% |
11.6% |
48.6% |
| Maguire Properties, Inc. |
2.3% |
9.8% |
12.5% |
6.6% |
3.7% |
65.1% |
| Parkway Properties, Inc. |
8.0% |
17.4% |
11.5% |
10.3% |
11.5% |
41.4% |
| Prentiss Properties Trust |
8.8% |
9.6% |
12.9% |
12.6% |
9.4% |
46.6% |
| Prime Group Realty Trust |
3.9% |
8.2% |
8.5% |
15.1% |
6.1% |
58.1% |
| SL Green Realty Corp. |
4.4% |
6.5% |
5.8% |
6.8% |
7.9% |
68.6% |
Average:
|
7.5% |
12.2% |
11.4% |
11.2% |
10.2% |
47.5% |
| Source: SNL DataSource-Real Estate Module. Data as of March 31, 2004. |
